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Latest MUSI Economic Research

chief flaw: failure to identify money as main source of problem
18 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    A theoretically deeply flawed currency manipulation report just published by the US Treasury will hurt not help the cause of tackling this problem.  Read on! .
Canadian dollar's multiple metamorphoses: and now pot!
17 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
 •    The dollar bloc in the Gulf is not under any immediate threat.  Yet the allure of gold as the ultimate safe haven could grow abruptly in this region.
•    The Canadian dollar has gained some bid from speculation on further “monetary tightening” next week.  But there are big grounds for longer term caution on this currency
Autumn "rout" in equity markets of Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook
16 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    The mini-rout in some of the FANMG stocks since their late Summer highs could be significant in the passage of global asset inflation on to its next stage.  Read on!.
a pivotal moment in German politics - does CDU shift left or right?
15 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
 •    The alleged Saudi murder in Istanbul is full of potential consequence for global international relations and domestic politics (including US) that it is not surprise that global financial markets should take note.  The scenarios, though, are wide-ranging.  Read on!
•    Meanwhile, the “shock” election results from Bavaria could bring a sea-change in Berlin. .
How to treat "Bavaria election shock" and PM May "Brexit deal"
10 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    The IMF in its just published reports on the world economy and financial stability fails totally to take on the issue of abusive manipulation practices affecting key global exchange rates.  Will the Trump Administration take this issue on seriously after the mid-terms?
•    If so, China and Japan would likely be in the front line
•    In Europe there is now much chatter about an EU-UK rapprochement on a deal which would mean the UK remained part of the European customs area for some considerable time.  The chatter is also that 40 or more opposition Labor Party MPs would vote for this.  And why not?  In a Machiavellian calculation the Labor leadership surely realizes that the appeasement deal proposed would likely mean long-run disaster for the Conservative Party as it lost its key anti-EU nationalist working class support in droves.   Such concerns could have weighty but unpredictable negative long-run influence on demand for UK assets from global investors even though “no deal” scare over
In global markets, when will the spotlight shift to the private equity bubble?
09 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    The immediate take from the Supreme Court battle is that this is a win for the Republicans ahead of the mid-terms.  Longer term considerations point to a very poor outcome for US conservatism where this means free-market and libertarian principle.  
•    In global markets the main story has been potential US continued reversal of easy money.  Yet there is no sign of vulnerability as yet in one core focus of the long monetary boom – the private equity sector.  You would not know  from the media commentaries that this could be the storm center of the next crash.  .
the spectre of default by inflation, financial repression and decree
03 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
  
•    An “exploding” US government debt over the next decade for many investors represents a main threat especially as regards the value of the dollar (both internal and external).  Yet the scenario of deliberate inflation to contain the debt (in real terms) does not loom at this stage as the central scenario.   Read on! .
The journey along Sunset Boulevard has many surprises
02 Oct 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
 •    The global euphoria which greeted the NAFTA deal has not lasted 24 hours – and with good reason.   Read on!.
No time for October almanacs!
28 Sep 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    The “Feldstein” scenario is surely one element in our field of probabilistic vision.  But according to the arguments here it is an outlier rather than at the center.  Read on!.
Talks on a US-Japan FTA: end of cheap yen will be part of the deal
27 Sep 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
 •    There is a scenario “out there” that US monetary tightening over the past year has reached significant dimension.  That is a scenario to which Chief Powell yesterday implicitly drew world market attention, stressing the long and variable lags involved.  Read on
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