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Economic Calendar

Latest MUSI Economic Research

Fed empty chairs and the dollar hold the key
20 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
 •    President Trump’s comments on the Fed and US dollar in a CNBC interview are not inconsequential for the dollar or for US monetary policy. In particular he is likely to be leaning towards even more dovish nominations to remaining empty chairs at the Fed, counting on cross-aisle support to get them through the Senate
The FAANMGs bubble - Walmart/Microsoft to battle Amazon
17 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    The core engine of this economic upswing, the credit markets, have been highly distorted and inflated by radical monetary policies.  Analysts are sensing that a late/end phase of the credit cycle is approaching, and that may already be reflected in the flat US yield curve.  On the other hand business statisticians are ecstatic about US “boom growth” in Q2.  How can we bridge the divide in perspectives?   Read on!
Helsinki Summit question on Iran: Mueller question on Facebook
16 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    US stock market optimists are speculating that the business expansion has much longer to run and at a quickened pace.   Their arguments for this, however, are non-convincing.  Read on!  
•    This is a testing week for UK PM May and her Conservative Party.  If the “Brexiters” are to halt the train towards a “capitulation agreement” with the EU, they have to effect a change of leadership.  They cannot depend solely on the hope that Labour will join with them to defeat the eventual EU exit bill in Parliament.   Labour, more lkely, would abstain, realizing that an ultra-soft Brexit is the best means of destroying the Conservative Party as its working-class anti-immigration/anti-EU supporters would desert.
A non-alarmist scenario for no-deal Brexit
13 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    US year-on-year reported CPI inflation continues to rise, whilst real wage rates in the US stagnate.  Overall growth year-on-year in the fist half, despite the boom in the oil patch, most likely has not quite reached the Trump Administration 3% target
•    Don’t’ expect the chief cheer-leader of the Trump boom at the Federal Reserve to betray any concerns when he testifies to Congress next week.  In any case, keeping to the path of monetary inflation is absolutely key to avoiding any market setbacks ahead of the mid-terms.  Even so, the scenario of slowdown and market setback is far from being of trivial significance.
•    As the UK Brexit drama continues into its next act – which could well include both a leadership challenge and a parliamentary defeat for PM May next week – it is important to realize how this might widen out into a EU trama, eventually having repercussions in Berlin and Rome.   And meanwhile, distrust those doomsday accounts of what a no-deal exit from the EU would entail!  .
PM May failed to deliver a US alliance: the conservatives will pay the price
12 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
 •    Why has President Trump been so silent on the issue of European currency manipulation?   .Read on!
•    Foreign exchange dealers are said to view an ever softer Brexit prospect as positive for the pound.   But do these calculations take sufficient account of the likely collapse of the Conservative Party in such circumstances?   
•    How will historians judged the failure of the May government to achieve a meaningful and potentially successful Brexit?  A key issue will be its turning down of a strategy which would have put the forming of a UK-US alliance as fundamental.  That strategy would have included the UK aligning its foreign policy with the US on Iran and the Middle East, opening its markets  to cheap US farm products
No too late for UK to prepare its defenses
10 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    If a credible alternative EU-UK deal is to emerge to the “Chequers appeasement deal” which critics (including the resigning ministers) have blasted, then London must waste no time in preparing a strategy for defense against a possible EU launched trade war once UK exits. And that strategy would surely include eventually bringing Washington into the process of  resolution. 
•    Yes, a no-deal exit and EU/UK trade war are daunting prospects.  Ultimately the trade-off (from the viewpoint of Brexiters) is between the pain and cost of these (for both sides) and the long-run costs for the UK (and ultimately Europe) of a “white flag” deal
Beware the hype about US economic growth spurt - and prepare for UK political shock!
09 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    The prospect of trade way is having large distortionary effect on a wide span of economic date, most plausibly contributing to some blip upwards in recent US and German data.  Prepare for war by accelerating goods flow through the pipelines which might later be taxed or disrupted.
•     These same lessons may apply, even more so, to possible perverse data impacts of a looming disruption in UK-EU trade.  Watch this space! .
Private equity sub-prime consumer loan boom in question
02 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    Most likely the global economic growth cycle outside the US peaked in mid-Winter (around the time of the US stock market mini-crash).  The US growth cycle upturn however continued and re-strengthened Into the Spring, helped by the boom in the oil sector. It is plausible that the peak of the 10-year Treasury Yield in May will have marked also the peak of the US growth cycle.  Read on!.
Private equity sub-prime consumer loan boom in question
02 Jul 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    Most likely the global economic growth  cycle outside the US peaked in mid-Winter (around the time of the US stock market mini-crash).  The US growth cycle upturn however continued and re-strengthened Into the Spring, helped by the boom in the oil sector. It is plausible that the peak of the 10-year Treasury Yield in May will have marked also the peak of the US growth cycle.  Read on!.
Is market signalling US growth cycle peak in 2018Q2?
29 Jun 18 | Economic Notes | Brendan Brown |


Economic ViewpointIf you are reading this email on a Blackberry, please see below for a summary of today's Viewpoint:
•    Present drama around the US Supreme Court, whether its stunning verdict this week weakening anti-trust action, or the likely big business friendly justice to fill the newly empty seat, is causing some despair amongst already despondent “classical liberal” conservatives in the US.  IS there any cause for hope, and how far should financial markets reflect the anxieties about “growth of monopoly and unsound money”?   Read on!
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